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IMF's Gita Gopinath Analyzes Global Economic Challenges
Gita Gopinath, the first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, delivered the 2022 Martin Feldstein Lecture, on “Managing a Turn in the Global Economy.” She described the policy challenges facing emerging markets, many of which have experienced rising debt-to-GDP ratios in the last decade, as global interest rates increase. She highlighted the need to integrate a range of policy instruments, including but not limited to the flexible exchange rates and domestic interest rates that are the focus of the conventional analysis, in designing a policy response. The Feldstein Lecture Series was launched in 2009 by the NBER Board of Directors to celebrate the contributions of distinguished economist and long-time NBER President Martin Feldstein, who passed away in 2019.
New COVID-19 Working Papers: July 25, 2022
Three new working papers distributed this week report on the economic, health, and related consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and public policies that respond to it. One, drawing on data from many countries, evaluates the efficacy of social media campaigns in increasing demand for vaccines and knowledge about where to get them (30273). Another documents a sharp rise in the closure rate of small businesses early in the pandemic (30285). Yet another investigates the effect of working from home on worker productivity and quit rates (30292).
More than 575 NBER working papers have addressed various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. These papers are open access and have been collected for easy reference. Like all NBER papers, they are circulated for discussion and comment, and have not been peer-reviewed. View the papers in reverse chronological order or filter by topic area.
A research summary from the monthly NBER Digest
Pandemic-Induced Remote Work and Rising House Prices
From December 2019 to November 2021, US house prices grew by 23.8 percent, the fastest rate on record. At the same time, the COVID-19 pandemic reshaped where and how Americans work. In November 2021, 42.8 percent of employees worked from home either part- or full-time. Some reports suggest that a significant fraction of pandemic-induced remote work may become permanent.
In Housing Demand and Remote Work (NBER Working Paper 30041), John A. Mondragon and Johannes Wieland find that the shift to...
From the NBER Reporter: Research, program, and conference summaries
Program Report: The Economics of Aging
When the NBER’s Program on the Economics of Aging began in 1986 under the direction of David Wise, the baby-boom generation was between the ages of 22 and 40. Long-run projections at the time forecast that the United States would transition to an older population distribution. Today, with baby boomers ranging in age from 58 to 76, that projected future is the ongoing reality of our nation. One-fifth of the population will be age 65 or older in the next decade.
Since its inception, the Economics of Aging Program’s underlying focus has been the study of the health and financial well-being of people as they age and the larger implications of a population that is increasingly composed of older people. The program continues this broad focus as new and ongoing challenges emerge and…
From the NBER Bulletin on Retirement and Disability
Projecting Changes in the US Labor Force
Population aging in the US and other developed countries presents a challenge for future economic growth and the sustainability of public programs. Yet tax revenues and government expenditures depend not only on the age composition of the population but also on the size of the labor force. Rising labor market participation rates may compensate for a smaller working-age population. Projections of labor force participation are therefore crucial for the assessment of future revenues and costs of social security systems.
Researchers René Böheim, Thomas Horvath, Thomas Leoni, and Martin Spielauer explore this subject in their study The Impact of Health and Education on Labor Force Participation in Aging Societies — Projections for the United States and Germany from a Dynamic Microsimulation (NBER Working Paper 29534). Using a highly...
From the NBER Bulletin on Health
VA Hospital Care Improves Health and Lowers Cost
Millions of elderly veterans are “dually eligible” to receive hospital care in two distinct settings: at public facilities funded by the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) or at private hospitals that accept Medicare reimbursement. The choice of setting is consequential for both the costs of their care and health outcomes, as demonstrated in Is There a VA Advantage? Evidence from Dually Eligible Veterans (NBER Working Paper 29765) by David C. Chan, Jr., David Card, and Lowell Taylor.
Veterans who choose to receive care in VA hospitals are, on average, sicker than those who choose private hospitals. As a result of this health…
From the NBER Bulletin on Entrepreneurship
The Rise of Private Financing for Entrepreneurs
In Private or Public Equity? The Evolving Entrepreneurial Finance Landscape (NBER Working Paper 29532), Michael Ewens and Joan Farre-Mensa survey the changes in the US entrepreneurial finance market over the last two decades. Their study begins by describing the differences between publicly listed and private firms, and then explores how several regulatory, technological, and competitive changes affecting both startups and investors have affected the costs and benefits of going public. The paper emphasizes the growing costs of the disclosures required of public firms, and also observes that major technological changes have reduced the initial capital investment…
Featured Working Papers
Following the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act, the share of profits booked abroad by US multinationals fell by between 3 and 5 percentage points, driven largely by repatriations of intellectual property, Javier Garcia-Bernando, Petr Janský, and Gabriel Zucman find.
Between 1947 and 2020, an increase in idiosyncratic stock return variation was associated with higher growth in next-quarter real GDP, industrial production, and consumption spending, even after controlling for other leading economic indicators, Randall Morck, and Bernard Yeung, Lu Y. Zhang find.
Milk inspectors were tasked with enforcing a set of well-defined minimum quality standards in the 1880s, contributing to a decline in mortality from water and foodborne diseases fell by between 8 and 19 percent over the period 1880–1910, according to research by D. Mark Anderson, Kerwin Kofi Charles, Michael McKelligott, and Daniel I. Rees.
Testing data on 2.1 million students in 49 states suggest that remote instruction resulted in widening achievement gaps, Dan Goldhaber, Thomas J. Kane, Andrew McEachin, Emily Morton, Tyler Patterson, and Douglas O. Staiger find.
Market integration of renewable energy expansion in the Chilean electricity market resulted in price convergence across regions, raised renewable generation, and decreased generation costs and pollution emissions, according to research by Luis Gonzales, Koichiro Ito, and Mar Reguant.
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